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Uncertainty continues to mount around the upcoming Canada Express Entry draws, as 2025 heads to its final months, and with no clear signs that Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) plans to shift towards an In-Canada focus any time soon.

Despite several large category-based draws held in October 2025, primarily for French language proficiency candidates, the STEM category and Agriculture or Agri-food category have not yet been used even once this year, so far.

This absence fuels speculations regarding IRCC's direction, especially as Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws remain limited in size, keeping CRS cut-off scores high, with French language proficiency draws continuing to dominate overall invitations.

Interestingly, many French category invitations are going to applicants residing outside Canada, leaving inland workers already contributing to Canada's economy, waiting longer for their turn.

With total Invitations to Apply (ITA) in 2025 already nearing last year's figures, experts believe IRCC could soon pause or slow down draws to align with the forthcoming Immigration Levels Plan 2026 - 2028, which is expected to be announced any day now.

As always, here's our detailed analysis and forecast for the next Express Entry draws and CRS Score trends, for the month of November 2025.

Overview of Express Entry Draws Held in October 2025

• In October, a series of back-to-back draws generated short-term excitement but also heightened anxiety among applicants. While the French draw cut-off dropped below 420, which is the lowest recorded since March 2025, the CEC draw cut-off barely budged, moving only a single point.
• As of October 29, IRCC has issued approximately 81,485 ITA, already nearing the 98,903 invitations of 2024. Though ITA counts do not directly equal permanent resident targets, they suffice as key indicators of IRCC's annual strategy.
• With just 17,418 invitations, short of 2024 levels, IRCC may now choose to slow down or pause new draws as it prepares for the next Immigration Levels Plan.

Also Read: IRCC Conducts 3rd Largest Express Entry Draw of 2025, Issuing 6,000 ITAs to French-speaking Candidates

November 2025 Express Entry Draw Predictions and CRS Expectations

Key Insights for the Remainder of 2025

• Absence of STEM and Agri-Food Draws Raises Concerns: Despite the early promise of regular category rotation, IRCC has not yet held a single STEM or Agri-Food draw this year, leaving thousands of professionals uncertain, while the healthcare, trades, and French categories continue to dominate.
• IRCC鈥檚 Dual Focus - Outland French Candidates, and Inland Workers: While the French proficiency draws continue to favour linguistic diversity in Canada which is an important policy goal for 2025, many of the French invitations reportedly went to candidates residing abroad, not in Canada. Meanwhile, the CEC draws remain small, signalling a cautious approach towards inland workers. This contrast highlights IRCC's balancing act between meeting labour goals and managing population growth under its stabilisation phase.
• High CRS Scores Reflect Shrinking Domestic Draw Sizes: The CEC draw cut off at 534 and 533 illustrates a persistent challenge that is limited. Draw sizes and preventing inland workers from seeing relief. Despite the robust labour market, the CRS threshold remains stubbornly high, without larger invitation grounds, and candidates with scores in the 520 and 530s would continue to wait until lowers going profiles in French or targeted sectors move ahead.
• Potential Break in Bi-Weekly Draw Schedule: Given that IRCC's total ITAs for 2025 are already close to last year's total, and IRCC already has over 900,000 permanent residency applications to meet annual targets for 2026 and 27 easily, experts predict fewer or irregular draws in November. Another fact that remains is that IRCC rarely poses entirely. There is a precedent for reduced selections when the department nears its quota.

Also Read: Canada to Redefine Immigration Strategy to Attract Skilled Global Talent & Boost Innovation

Current CRS Score Distributions in the Express Entry Pool (After the October 28 Draw)

The distribution reveals a massive buildup of profiles between CRS 400 to 500, particularly among inland workers and recent graduates. For these candidates, waiting for the general CEC draw is no longer a viable strategy. Now, with IRCC prioritising category-based selections, they consider:

• Developing French language ability to qualify for the French category draws
• Align work experience with active categories such as healthcare trades or education.
• Explore Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP) for a potential 600-point boost.

The high concentration of 142,000+ profiles between 401 to 500 CRS score range means competition is particularly steep, and only the real differentiators are now category eligibility or Provincial nomination.

What do Numbers Suggest for November 2025 Express Entry Draws?

• We can expect another large French language proficiency draw with another 5000 to 6000 ITAs, and the CRS score could again dip to nearly 415 as IRCC balances French language targets with overall ITA limits.
• The CRS cut-off for CEC draw could likely remain stuck between 528 to 540 unless the invitation count rises substantially.
• A healthcare draw could bring another 2000 to 2500 invitations, with a CRS score cut-off around 470
• Based on the September comeback, Education and Trades draws may reappear with CRS near 460 and 505, respectively.
• PNP rounds would remain small, with its expected around 300 to 400, used mainly for backlog management.
• With rising criticism from employer groups, a late-year STEM draw could surface in December if IRCC wants to meet its innovation sector commitments.

IRCC鈥檚 Current Strategy

IRCC currently appears focused on three core goals:

• Transitioning temporary residents to permanent residency.
• Meeting French language, immigration targets (8.5 for 2025, 9.5 for 2026, and 10.5 for 2027)
• Prioritising essential sectors like healthcare, education, and Trades

While this approach limits inland limitations for now, it may shift once the new Immigration Levels Plan 2026 to 2028 is revealed.

Also Read: Canada鈥檚 Immigration Levels Plan 2026-28 Will Include New Pathways to Grant PR for Temporary Residents

Recommendation for Express Entry Candidates

For CEC and Inland applicants

• Retake IELTS or TEF to maximise CRS score
• Explore category eligibility in Trades or Education
• Pursue a PNP nomination for an additional 600 CRS points

For French language candidates

• Aim for CLB 9 or higher on TEF or TCF
• Keep track of both federal and provincial francophone streams

For STEM and Agri-food professionals

• Keep documentation ready for a potential draw (NOC alignment, job letters, etc)
• Stay alert for IRCC鈥檚 year-end and policy updates.

For candidates with CRS 400 to 500

• Focus on active categories or PNP options, as passively waiting is no longer strategic

What to Expect Further from IRCC Canada?

Currently, all the attention is on the Immigration Levels Plan 2026 to 2028, which will further provide an outline to:

• Annual PR targets for the next three years
• Distribution among categories
• Future Draw frequencies

With ITAs nearing last year's total, November and December could see fewer draws or a brief pause, while IRCC recalibrates.

While Express Entry remains Canada's premier immigration pathway, 2025 has been a transitional year defined by targeted draws, slower intake, and shifting priorities. The message from IRCC is clear that having a strong CRS score alone is no longer enough to secure PR in Canada.

Also Read: IRCC to Unveil Immigration Levels Plan 2026-28: Check Expected Changes & Priorities

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