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As Express Entry moves into 2026, it is clearly operating as a targeted selection framework much like it did in 2025. The Express Entry system is no longer a single lane system where one draw type defines the outcome for the entire year.

Instead, IRCC is managing the system through multiple volume levers, adjusting draw types, sizes, and timing to meet policy objectives and operational constraints. Throughout 2025, 3 clear pathways have been prominent across the Express Entry draws:

• Heavy reliance on French language proficiency draws
• Frequent Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) rounds
• Strategic use of the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) to relieve in-Canada pressure when the pool becomes congested

This same structure design is expected to be continued into 2026, but with sharper execution and clearer prioritisation.

Express Entry System in 2026

• French language selection rounds remain the most powerful and predictable pathway because it directly support a published federal objective, i.e., increasing French-speaking permanent residents outside Canada
• At the same time, the PNP admissions targets rise significantly in 2026, which changes the composition of the Express Entry pool. Since more nominees are entering the system, this signifies IRCC would need to run PNP-specific rounds more frequently to prevent backlog accumulation.
• Meanwhile, CEC continues to function as IRCC's most flexible operational tool, allowing the department to convert in-Canada workers into permanent residents without relying on rigid occupation lists.

Express Entry Categories Available in 2026

IRCC's current Express Entry system category-based selection framework includes:

• French language proficiency
• Healthcare and Social Services
• STEM Occupations.
• Trades
• Agriculture and Agri-Food occupations
• Educational occupations
• Physicians with Canadian work experience

Categories With the Strongest Policy Gravity in 2026

Three categories are set to dominate Express Entry decision-making in 2026, which include:

• French language proficiency: This category would remain the highest priority pathway, which is tied directly to federal targets for French-speaking admissions outside Canada, as they are set at 9% for 2026, rising to 10.5% in 2027
• Canadian Experience Class (CEC): This pathway remains IRCC's most adaptable channel, as it allows IRCC to manage in Canada inventories efficiently, especially when pressure builds in the pool without being constrained by occupation-specific eligibility.
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): The PNP admission target for 2026 is set to rise to 91,500, which ensures continued reliance on nomination-backed Express Entry draws, as nomination volumes increase draw frequencies would follow in line.

The New Physicians Category for Express Entry 2026

The introduction of a dedicated category for physicians with Canadian work experience is a structural change and not a cosmetic one. Previously, physicians competed within broader healthcare rounds or relied on employer-driven or provincial pathways.

However, in 2026, this group gains a dedicated Express Entry pathway aligned with Canada's broader health workforce strategy. The expected updates of this category include:

• Initially, smaller, controlled ITA volumes as eligibility is narrow, and IRCC calibrates intake.
• CRS cut-offs that may sit below stranded CEC levels, despite physicians often having strong profiles.
• Likely quarterly draws at first, with an increase in frequency if IRCC uses the category to stabilise physician admissions in Canada.

Express Entry Draws Targets vs Initiatives in 2026

Admission targets guide planning for Canada, but ITAs are a separate operational lever. IRCC deliberately issues more ITA, than final landings because:

• Not all invited candidates submit applications
• Refusal rates have increased in recent years
• Some approved applicants land in later calendar years
• Inventory buffers are needed to prevent admission gaps caused by processing fluctuations

This distinction is critical when interpreting draw volumes

Also Read: Canada鈥檚 2026-28 Immigration Levels Plan Raises PNP Targets by Over 66%

Overview of Express Entry Draws In 2025

In 2025, IRCC has issued a total of 113,998 Invitations to Apply (ITA) across 58 rounds, distributed as follows:

• The key takeaway from Express Entry draws 2025 is not just the size of French draws, but their repeatability at comparatively low CRS cutoffs. A standout example was the march round, issuing 7,500 ITAs with a cut-off as low as 379. This firmly establishes French as the primary volume release mechanism in 2025 and its crucial role that is expected to be retained in 2026.
• CEC shows a different pattern with consistently high cut-offs and ITA volumes fluctuating between small maintenance rounds and larger rounds, confirming CEC's tactical role rather than a volume-driven one.
• PNP rounds were frequent, but smaller in 2025 due to reduced quotas. However, with targets rebounding in 202,6 both nomination volumes and drop frequencies are expected to rise.

First Express Entry Draw of 2026

Based on the December sequence pattern i.e., PNP, followed by CEC, followed by French and IRCC鈥檚 tendency to resume draws quickly after the holidays. The first full week of January is likely to follow the same structure as December.

Expected Number of ITAs Based on Express Entry Category in 2026

1. Projected Total Number of ITAs in 2026: 117,000
2. Proposed Distribution:
   1. French Language Proficiency: 48,000
   2. Canadian Experience Class: 40,000
   3. Provincial Nominee Program: 12,000
   4. Healthcare & Social Services: 10,000
   5. Other Categories (STEM, Education, Trades, Agriculture): 4,000
   6. Physicians with Canadian Work Experience: 3,000

The mentioned projections are slightly higher than 2025 and reflect the need for over invitations to offset refusal and delayed landings. Early-year and late-year draws are expected to be heavier to stabilise admissions flow.

Forecast CRS Score Cut-off Ranges for 2026

The expected CRS score cut-off ranges (not point predictions) based on 2025 draws pool compositions and volumes, for each Express Entry category, is as follows:

If we look at an alternative scenario wherein IRCC limits invitations due to existing processing inventory, total ITAs could fall below 100,000. In this scenario,

• French rounds would continue but could shrink to 4,000 to 5,000 ITAs per round.
• CEC shifts back to smaller maintenance-focused rounds
• Category-based draws would become more selective

The CRS impact would be as follows: the French category could stabilise at 410 to 440, while the CEC largely stays above 520, and category rounds invite fewer lower CRS candidates

Also Read: IRCC to Unveil Immigration Levels Plan 2026-28

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Express Entry in 2026, will remain a targeted multilane system where category matters more than raw CRS scores. Shifting priorities across French proficiency CEC, PNP, and category-based draws, professional guidance can significantly improve your Canada PR outcomes. To assess your eligibility, optimise your profile, and align with the right pathway. Reach out for expert guidance from 成人每日大赛.

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